Wells Fargo Championship odds, pick and PGA Tour preview
Several PGA Tour stars return to play this week for their final tune-up before the second major of 2022. Below, we analyze the odds and preview the TPC Potomac before making our picks to win the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship.
Rory McIlroy will be looking to defend his third Wells Fargo Championship title this week, but he will have to do it in a new place. The tournament moved from Quail Hollow Club to TPC Potomac in Potomac, Maryland in 2022, with Quail Hollow hosting the Presidents Cup in late September.
McIlroy will face a stronger field than Jon Rahm beat last week at the Mexican Open. But it’s still a relatively unimpressive field two weeks out from the second major of 2022, with just five of the top 25 golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) in attendance. While some big names will likely play AT&T Byron Nelson in Texas next week, the PGA Championship will be the next outing for most of golf’s biggest stars.
Here are my top picks for the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship at TPC Potomac.
Wells Fargo Championship Odds
SEE ALSO: 2022 US Open odds and picks
Wells Fargo Championship Odds Analysis
Much like last week’s Mexican Open, the odds of winning the Wells Fargo Championship vary wildly between our top-rated US sportsbooks, beyond a consensus favorite. Sure, Rahm took the win last week, but doing it all at once with odds as low as +350 should serve as a warning against eating so much chalk when betting on golf.
McIlroy has an implied win probability as high as 12.50% via PointsBet this week. The books seem to be looking to take advantage of those who want to support the biggest star on the pitch and a three-time winner of this event. However, McIlroy never played at the Potomac professionally, with the venue last hosting the Quicken Loans National in 2017 and 2018.
Tony Finau finished as a co-finalist at the Mexican Open last week. He entered the tournament with odds of around +2000 against the weak field, and his odds were only slightly increased against the stiffer competition.
DraftKings Sportsbook looks most favorably on Russell Henley to win while giving him +2000 odds. FanDuel Sportsbook offers higher odds almost across the board, including a +3200 price on Henley.
Odds are dropped on Corey Conners this week. While the Canadian is entering excellent form, he is only the seventh best golfer present who is on the OWGR, but the ratings put Connors as the second best.
Check out our top rated sportsbooks here.
TPC Potomac Course Profile
Length: 7,160 yards
Green vegetables: Bentgrass
TPC Potomac hosted the Booz Allen Classic from 1987 to 2006, but has only hosted the Quicken Loans National twice since. Streams and streams meander throughout the course, and it features Scottish-style bunkers.
The course has been extended slightly since Francesco Molinari’s eight-stroke win in the 2018 Quicken Loans National over Ryan Armor at -21. Only seven golfers shot -10 or better over 72 holes, with eight holes playing under par. Kyle Stanley won in the playoffs against Charles Howell III at -7 in 2017.
The tree-lined fairways and rolling terrain emphasize precision off the tee. Strokes Gained: Approach was also a key stat for those at the top of the 2018 Quicken Loans National standings. Ryan Palmer was able to tie in eighth despite losing 0.13 strokes per round with the putter. Fellow top 10 finalists Beau Hossler and Chesson Hadley lost shots around the greens in four rounds.
The most common par 4 range at TPC Potomac is 450–500 yards, although three par 4s are also below 400 yards. Two of the par 3s are over 200 yards and the two par 5s are at 619 and 560 yards.
Wells Fargo Championship Key Stats
Our key stats for the PGA Tour’s return to TPC Potomac will focus on:
- Hits earned: approach
- Driving precision
- Approaches from 175 to 200 meters
- Normal Efficiency 4: 450-500 yards
- Rating by 3
- Bogey avoidance
There isn’t much price history to use this week, but we can fit our model to the Quicken Loans National 2017 and 2018 rankings. Value can be found in generally less attractive shorter hitters with greater accuracy. high and strong iron games.
Molinari, who won at TPC Potomac in his only appearance to date, is the course’s all-time leader with 5.13 total strokes won on the course per round. It’s as high as +12500 to win this week at BetMGM. ,
Sung Kang leads with 2.64 total strokes won per round among those with eight rounds played on this site.
Wells Fargo Championship Pick
- Marc Leishman (+3600 via FanDuel)
- Paul Casey (+4100 via FanDuel)
- Tyler Duncan (+18000 via DraftKings)
Who will win the Wells Fargo Championship?
We get our best number on Marc Leishman to win the Wells Fargo Championship at FanDuel. The OWGR 46th-ranked golfer won his only top 10 of the year so far at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in January. He’s also missed just one cut across nine international events and has been out since a T-30 finish at the Masters. Leishman is +2000 to win at DraftKings, making that number a steal.
He finished fifth at TPC Potomac in 2017 and 13th in 2018, averaging 2.02 total strokes gained per round. He earns strokes per turn in all key stats in 2022, and although Leishman is only 128th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy, the 38-year-old is 50th in efficiency by 4: 450-500 yards, first in by 3 scoring, and 24th in bogey avoidance.
The tall Aussie shares the 11th best odds to win at FanDuel. He is listed as the 14th best player in the field on the OWGR. We pay a premium, but the price still reduces its historic trail advantage on the rarely used site.
Paul Casey makes his first career appearance at TPC Potomac. It is also his first stroke play event since finishing third in the Players Championship after withdrawing from the Masters due to injury before the start of his first round. He enters this week ranked 26th in the world and is the sixth-best golfer in the field by that metric. However, he only shares the 11th best odds to win.
The Englishman is second in this lot with 1.03 SG: Approach for the 2021-22 season. His 32-foot-9 pin on approaches from 175 to 200 yards would rank 60th on the circuit if he had logged enough events played to qualify. More importantly, his 2.97 par-3 average would rank in the top 10 on the Tour.
Tyler Duncan enters this week only 382nd in the OWGR, and he is coming off a missed cut at the Mexican Open last week. However, he tied for 12th at the more comparable Harbor Town Golf Links at RBC Heritage. Duncan also produced a streak of three consecutive top-35 finishes heading into the Valero Texas Open, all in events with similar field strength to this week.
He’s also among the few on the court this week with a history at TPC Potomac. Dunson finished tied for 41st in 2018, though he struggled on the greens. He’s fifth on the circuit this season in driving accuracy (a major improvement over his game in 2018), T-7 in par-3 scoring and a good enough 58th in bogey avoidance.
He’s a longshot on every level. But we get our best price at DraftKings, with PointsBet offering a more modest +12500.
Where to bet on the PGA Tour
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Wells Fargo Championship picks made on 05/02/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.